Does Weak Macroeconomic Performance Affect Voter Turnout? An Analysis Accounting for the 'Joshua Generation Effect'

Richard Cebula (), Maggie Foley and Sriparna Ghosh
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Maggie Foley: Davis College of Business, Jacksonville University, Jacksonville, Florida, USA
Sriparna Ghosh: Department of Economics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 2018, vol. 71, issue 1, 9-28

Abstract: This empirical study applies an interpretation of the model of expressive voting to investigate whether higher unemployment rates as a measure of weak macroeconomic performance in U.S. induce an increase in voter participation of eligible voters in Presidential elections. The study period involves the four election-cycle years of 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. The Random Effects estimations imply that voter turnout among eligible voters is a decreasing function of the percent of the population that was Hispanic and an increasing function of the percent of the adult population with a high school diploma, the percent of the adult population with a four-year college degree, and election closeness between the two major-party Presidential candidates, as well as the “Joshua Generation Effect”. Voter turnout is also found to be an increasing function of the level of the state unemployment rate of the civilian labor. This outcome is consistent with the hypothesis stating that the number of eligible voters, who are concerned with the implications of excessively high unemployment, increases with the unemployment rate. The eigible voters consist of both employed eligible voters and unhappy unemployed eligible voters who go to the polls and cast their ballots. Un debole andamento macroeconomico può influire sull’affluenza al voto? Un’analisi che tiene conto del ‘Joshua generation effect’ Questo studio empirico si avvale del modello expressive voting per analizzare se un più alto tasso di disoccupazione, come indicatore di un debole andamento macroeconomico negli USA, induca un aumento della partecipazione al voto alle elezioni presidenziali. Lo studio prende in considerazione quattro tornate elettorali: 2000, 2004, 2008 e 2012. Le stime dell’effetto random implicano che la partecipazione al voto è funzione decrescente della percentuale di popolazione ispanica, funzione crescente della percentuale di popolazione adulta con diploma di laurea e con diploma del college (4 anni), funzione crescente della vicinanza dei candidati nella corsa alla presidenza e del cosiddetto “Joshua generation effect”. Il numero dei votanti risulta essere funzione crescente del tasso di disoccupazione. Questo risultato è coerente con l’ipotesi secondo la quale la partecipazione al voto aumenta con il crescere del tasso di disoccupazione, in quanto si recano alle urne i votanti ‘occupati’, perché preoccupati a causa della disoccupazione, e i disoccupati che sono, ovviamente, già scontenti della loro condizione.

Keywords: Voter Turnout; Macroeconomic Performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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