Output Fluctuations in Nigeria

Oluremi Ogun
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Oluremi Ogun: University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 2018, vol. 71, issue 4, 465-502

Abstract: This study investigates the macroeconomic sources of output fluctuations in Nigeria. The study was conducted within the context of stabilization policies. The analysis covered the period, 1960 to 2013. Typical of the macroeconomic sources investigated were monetary, fiscal, trade and external sector allied issues as well as strictly exogenous developments. Two analytical approaches were applied to detrended data series in the study. The outcome of the exercise suggested policy directions with narrow money and foreign real interest rate pinpointed as the principal causes of output fluctuations. An optimal response of policy to cycles originating outside the economy was also outlined. Fluttuazioni della produzione in Nigeria Questo studio analizza le cause macroeconomiche delle fluttuazioni della produzione in Nigeria. L’analisi è condotta nel contesto delle politiche di stabilizzazione e copre il periodo 1960-2013. Le principali cause macroeconomiche prese in considerazione sono monetarie, fiscali, commerciali e le problematiche connesse a questi settori, in aggiunta a sviluppi strettamente esogeni. Due approcci analitici sono applicati alle serie detrendizzate di dati. Il risultato di questa simulazione suggerisce l’adozione di politiche basate su un aggregato monetario ristretto ed evidenzia come i tassi di interesse reali stranieri sono le principali cause delle fluttuazioni della produzione. Viene inoltre osservata una reazione ottimale ai cicli che si creano al di fuori del sistema economico.

Keywords: Macroeconomic Theory; Business Cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 E30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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