The Voter Turnout/Relative Unemployment Rate Hypothesis

Richard Cebula ()

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 2019, vol. 72, issue 3, 255-280

Abstract: This study proffers and investigates empirically the “Voter Turnout/Relative Unemployment Rate Hypothesis,” a hypothesis arguing that the higher the unemployment rate in a state relative to the unemployment rate in the nation as a whole, the greater the voter participation rate of eligible voters in that state, ceteris paribus. The model, while focusing on the state unemployment rate relative to the unemployment rate in the nation as a whole as opposed simply to the level of the unemployment rate per se, also includes control variables for a number of established demographic, public choice, and economics factors. Random-Effects estimations reveal strong empirical support for the central hypothesis of the study. In other words, the voter participation rate among eligible voters is found to be an increasing function of the ratio of the percentage unemployment rate of the civilian labor force in a state relative to the national percentage unemployment rate. Robustness testing affirms the strength and consistency of the voter-turnout impact of this variable. In addition, as an alternative test of the resiliency of the hypothesis, the voter participation rate is found to be an increasing function of the difference between the percentage unemployment rate in a state and the national percentage unemployment rate. These findings also suggest that the higher the unemployment rate in a state vis-à-vis the unemployment rate in the nation as a whole, the greater the degree to which eligible voters in that state, arguably both employed eligible voters concerned with the implications of excessive high unemployment as well as resentful/angry unemployed eligible voters with their own feelings regarding the unemployment rate issue go the polls to cast their votes. L’ipotesi sulla relazione tra il numero di elettori e il tasso di disoccupazione Questo lavoro analizza empiricamente l’ipotesi sulla relazione tra il numero degli aventi diritto al voto e il tasso di disoccupazione relativo. Tale ipotesi afferma che più è alto il tasso di disoccupazione in uno degli stati rispetto all’intera nazione statunitense, maggiore sarà la partecipazione al voto durante una consultazione, ceteris paribus. Il tasso di partecipazione al voto risulta essere una funzione crescente della differenza tra il tasso percentuale di disoccupazione in uno stato e lo stesso tasso a livello nazionale. Quindi più alto è il tasso di disoccupazione in uno stato in relazione al tasso nazionale, più sarà alto il livello di aventi diritto al voto in quello stato.

Keywords: Relative Unemployment Rate; Voter Participation Rate; Unemployment Rate Differentials (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 J64 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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