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Testing for the Tourism Led Economic Growth Hypothesis in Sweden with Structural Breaks

Abdulnasser Hatemi-J () and Per-Ola Maneschiöld
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Per-Ola Maneschiöld: Department of Business, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 2021, vol. 74, issue 3, 293-310

Abstract: Many emerging as well as frontier markets have promoted tourism for achieving economic growth. This paper investigates empirically the impact of tourism receipts on the economic performance in Sweden. The results of tests for cointegration reveal that there is a long run relationship between the underlying variables if the effect of two unknown structural breaks are accounted for. The elasticity of the GDP with regard to revenue from tourism is around 0.99, which decreases during 1973-1977 but increases during 1978-2017. The result from the bootstrap causality test also shows that the tourism-led growth hypothesis is empirically supported in the case of Sweden. Test sull'ipotesi della crescita economica trainata dal turismo con break strutturali in Svezia Molti mercati emergenti, così come molti mercati di frontiera, hanno promosso il turismo al fine di raggiungere lo sviluppo economico. Questo articolo analizza empiricamente l’impatto degli incassi turistici sull’economia della Svezia. I risultati dei test di cointegrazione rivelano che c’è una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili evidenziate se si tiene conto dell’effetto di due break strutturali. L’elasticità del PIL in riferimento al reddito derivante dal turismo è circa 0.99, scende nel periodo 1973-1977 ma cresce nel periodo 1978-2017. Il risultato del test di causalità bootstrap dimostra anche che l’ipotesi di una crescita trainata dal turismo è empiricamente supportata nel caso della Svezia.

Keywords: Tourism Receipts; Economic Growth; Sweden; Structural Breaks; Bootstrap Causality Test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E01 F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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