China’s CPTPP Accession: Economic Gains and Trade Risks

Hu Zhigao, Zhang Jiayi and Li Jing
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Hu Zhigao: Business School of Shantou University, Shantou Guangdong, China
Zhang Jiayi: WMG College, Warwick University, Coventry, United Kingdom
Li Jing: Business School of Shantou University, Shantou Guangdong, China

Journal of Economic Integration, 2025, vol. 40, issue 4, 543-566

Abstract: This study evaluates the economic implications of China’s potential accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. Results reveal that CPTPP membership would generally boost import-export growth rates across most industries, with significant benefits for agriculture, textiles, papermaking, and minerals, whereas extraction, petrochemicals, automotive, steel, machinery, and electronics sectors gain less. The CPTPP induces trade diversion, enhancing China’s GDP and social welfare under normal conditions, but such gains diminish under trade sanctions. While joining the CPTPP improves trade terms and expands surplus in standard scenarios, sanctions could reverse these outcomes. Consequently, China should pursue CPTPP integration while proactively addressing sanctions risks to minimize adverse effects.

Keywords: GTAP Model; CPTPP; Tariff Barriers; Non-Tariff Barriers; Trade Sanctions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:integr:021794

DOI: 10.11130/jei.2025007

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