China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa

Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska (), Israel Osorio-Rodarte () and Delfin Go
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Maryla Maliszewska: The World Bank, Postal: 818 H St NW Washington DC 20433,United States
Israel Osorio-Rodarte: The World Bank, Postal: 818 H St NW Washington DC 20433,United States
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Israel Osorio Rodarte

Journal of Economic Integration, 2017, vol. 32, issue 4, 759-803

Abstract: This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China’s expected transformation, that is, economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption. It estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. By 2030, an average 1 percent annual slowdown of China’s GDP is expected to result in 1.1 percent GDP decline in Sub-Saharan Africa and a 0.6 percent global slowdown relative to past trends. However, if China’s transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset through higher overall imports by China and positive terms-of-trade effects for its trading partners. Slowdown and rebalancing in China is estimated to increase GDP by 4.7 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa and by 4.8 percent for the global economy. China’s transformation is also estimated to reduce poverty, but the extent depends on country in the Sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: Trade; Poverty; Africa; China; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Microsimulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D31 D58 F17 F63 I32 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:integr:0738

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