A Momentary Lapse of Reason? Assessing the Pre- and Post-Brexit Preferences of UK Citizens

Etienne Farvaque, Muhammad Azmat Hayat () and Ifrah Siddique ()
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Muhammad Azmat Hayat: University of the Punjab, Pakistan, Postal: Associate Professor, Department of Econometrics and Quantitative Methods, School of Economics, University of the, Punjab, Lahore (Pakistan).
Ifrah Siddique: University of the Punjab, Pakistan, Postal: M.Phil. Student, Department of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore (Pakistan).

Journal of Economic Integration, 2021, vol. 36, issue 3, 372-408

Abstract: We analyze the persistence of the major determinants of distrust toward the European Union (EU) and pro-Brexit voting attitudes of citizens of the United Kingdom. Looking both backward and forward, our analysis confirms that Euroscepticism is deep-rooted, although the data reveal differences across different parts of the country. We observe no major transformation in the favor of the EU over the last two decades or in the post-referendum period. We also carry out an age-period-cohort analysis by interacting age and cohort effects with time to analyze the evolution of individual preferences. We find that an aging population will promote Eurosceptic assertiveness. We then implement a demographic forecasting analysis to predict whether the level of distrust of older cohorts can be offset by differing attitudes among younger cohorts in the future. On the contrary, we find that demographic trends will tend to strengthen distrust in the EU.

Keywords: Brexit; voting; attitudes; preferences; distrust; European Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F53 N44 R20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:integr:0831

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