The Impacts of Financial Market, Trade and Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Import Performance of Advanced Economies

Xueting Gong (), Dinkneh Gebre Borojo, Jiang Yushi (), Miao Miao () and Eixuan Wu ()
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Xueting Gong: Sichuan University of Public Administration, Chengdu, China, Postal: Yiyang Vocational and Technical College; Yiyang; Hunan
Dinkneh Gebre Borojo: Yiyang Vocational and Technical College, Yiyang, Hunan, China, Postal: Sichuan University of Public Administration; Chengdu, China; School of Economics, and Management; Southwest Jiaotong University; Chengdu, China
Jiang Yushi: School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China, Postal: Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu China; Service Science, and Innovation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province; Southwest Jiaotong University; Chengdu, China
Miao Miao: Chengdu Normal University, Chengdu, China, Postal: Chengdu Normal University; Chengdu; China
Eixuan Wu: Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China, Postal: College of Architecture and Urban Planning; Sichuan Agricultural University; Chengdu; China

Journal of Economic Integration, 2024, vol. 39, issue 2, 394-419

Abstract: This study aims to examine the long-term and short-term diverse effects of economic policy uncertainty, trade policy uncertainty, and financial market uncertainties on the import performance of advanced economies. It employs the Pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG/ARDL) method for the panel of 27 advanced economies using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The study's results reveal that local and global economic and trade policy uncertainties have significant adverse long-term effects on the import performance of advanced economies. Besides, financial market uncertainties negatively impact advanced economies’ imports in the long run. Nonetheless, the results imply that domestic economic and trade policy uncertainties positively affect imports in the short run. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H) panel causality test indicated that bidirectional causality exists between financial market and trade policy uncertainty indicators and imports. However, unidirectional causality exists between economic policy indicators and imports. The results are consistent across different sensitivity analyses. Based on these findings, we propose policy implications to control economic, trade and financial market uncertainties and thereby alleviating their impact on the import performance of advanced economies.

Keywords: import performance; economic policy uncertainty; trade policy uncertainty; financial market uncertainty; advanced economies; heterogeneous panel models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F10 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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