Modeling of the Deferred Demand on the Market of Household Appliances

Maya Valerianovna Dubovik (), Venera Maratovna Timiryanova and Alexander Federovich Zimin
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Maya Valerianovna Dubovik: Doctor of Economics, Professor, Professor at the Department of Economic Theory, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 36 Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, Russian Federation
Venera Maratovna Timiryanova: Student of the Master's program "Sociology of Communications", Bashkir State University, 3 Zaki Validy Str., Ufa, Russian Federation
Alexander Federovich Zimin: Doctor of Economics, Professor at the Department of Economics and Management in Trade and Catering Enterprises, of the Ufa Institute (Branch) of the Plekhanov RUE, 177/3 Mendeleev Str., Ufa, Russian Federation

Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, 2017, vol. 22, issue 01, 01-12

Abstract: Purpose of the study: Development of a mathematical tool for assessing and predicting strategies of deferred demand on the market of household appliances. Methodology: The study is the basic tenets of neo-Keynesian economic theory and methods of statistical analysis: the method of grouping and binary regression. Information basis: The analytical materials, expert opinions and statistical data of the Federal Service of State Statistics of Russia and the Republic of Bashkortostan. A survey was carried out by the example of the market of household appliances in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The study analyzed more than 800 questionnaires of consumers of household appliances. Results: The study results in the authors’ definition of deferred demand as an economic category, provides main reasons for the transfer of part of the demand into deferred in the face of uncertainty, identifies factors that shape deferred demand on the market of household appliances; marks general and specific features of the market of household appliances in the Republic of Bashkortostan distinguishing it from the Russian market as a whole; a model of binary regression was built and tested; a strong correlation between the amount of deferred demand, price index, dollar exchange rate, unemployment rate and the index of consumer confidence was proved, which allows to predict the subsequent deferred demand for household appliances. The proposed study results represent a continuation and development of the study of consumer demand and behavior conducted by the authors in this field.

Keywords: Uncertainty; Deferred Demand; Consumer Behavior; Savings; Expectations; Consumer Confidence Index; Binary Regression Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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