Options and Market Forecasting

Raymond Trémolières () and Anton Turko ()
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Raymond Trémolières: Paul Cezanne University Aix en Provence
Anton Turko: University of Paul Cezanne

Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, 2009, vol. 14, issue 3, 01-09

Abstract: This paper follows a preceding paper by TREMOLIERES, TURKO, KARAM (2006) in which was proposed a specific behavioral model revealing the functioning of option markets and the way equilibrium values can be observed. We shall make use of Utility theory and Stochastic dominance. This model was illustrated earlier on simplified financial data. But our aim was to conduct a more realistic experimentation to reveal the logical probability function of market values. We build an information system using option market data available on internet. It is the purpose of the present paper to propose a new tool to analyze the financial market probability structure.

Keywords: Open-source’ database; Financial markets; Conditional markets; Option markets; Equilibrium prices; Probability; Derivatives; Market Probability Indicator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:joibac:0484

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