Impact Of Tax Reforms On Macroeconomic Uncertainty In Nigeria

Sodeeq Opeyemi Adesoye and Peter P. Njiforti
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Sodeeq Opeyemi Adesoye: Policy Innovation Centre, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Email: sodeeqopeyemi20@gmail.com
Peter P. Njiforti: Professor of Economics, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria Email: njifortica@yahoo.com

Journal of Taxation and Economic Development, 2025, vol. 24, issue 2, 55-67

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of tax reforms on macroeconomic uncertainty using quarterly data of CBN statistical bulletin and FIRS tax statistics from 2011-2021 on four variables; GDP growth rate (GDPGR) to capture macroeconomic uncertainty, company’s income tax (CIT), and value added tax (VAT) revenue as proxy of tax reform, while standard deviation uncertainty (SDVAT) as the control variable. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Bound test technique was employed to assess the long and short-run properties of the variables, as the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests revealed that all series were found to be integrated of mix order. Findings reveal that change in corporate tax rate (CIT) has a dynamic significant effect on economic growth rate in both the short and long run, while value added tax (VAT) has a positive effect on macroeconomic uncertainty and become significant in the long run and standard deviation uncertainty (SDVAT reveals a positive minimal significant impact on economic growth rate. The study recommends that policymakers should assess the wider impact of tax policy before implementing them due to its significant role in economic sustainability. Despite the data scope limitation, this study contributes novel insights into fiscal dynamics impact on economic growth and predictability of macroeconomic outcome

Keywords: ARDL; Economic growth rate; Macroeconomic; Tax reform; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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