Forecasting of the Volume of the SPA and Wellness Tourism Receipts in the South-West Bulgaria

Preslav Dimitrov (), Diana Daleva () and Milena Stoyanova ()
Additional contact information
Preslav Dimitrov: South-West University (Bulgaria), Postal: Faculty of Economics, Department of Tourism, South-West University 'Neofit Rilski', Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria, http://www.swu.bg/
Diana Daleva: South-West University (Bulgaria), Postal: Faculty of Economics, Department of Tourism, South-West University 'Neofit Rilski', Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria, http://www.swu.bg/
Milena Stoyanova: South-West University (Bulgaria), Postal: Faculty of Economics, Department of Tourism, South-West University 'Neofit Rilski', Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria, http://www.swu.bg/

Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, 2017, vol. 5, issue 2, 83-99

Abstract: The present paper regards the application of some forecasting methods in regards to the SPA and Wellness tourism in South-West Bulgaria such as: the linear trend forecasting, the double exponential forecasting (the Holt’s method), the ARIMA method, the naïve method and the indexed naïve method. Specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the sector of the SPA and Wellness tourism in the time series of the available data and in the forecast values is being presented. Future and past predictions have been achieved based on statistical records of a time series of 18-year periods. The present paper regards also several major problems in the application of the univariate forecasting methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting of the volume of the tourism receives and especially the ones in the sub sector of the SPA and Wellness tourism in SouthWest Bulgaria. These problems include as: (i) the problem of finding of a suitable general indicator; (ii) Determining the time series pattern, or the so-called “forecast profile” and selecting and using of suitable forecasting techniques; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; (iv) comparing of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts;(v) Estimating the size of the SPA and Wellness tourism in South-West Bulgaria in certain terms, so that the forecast(s) of the above-mentioned general indicator could be particularized especially for regarded sub sector and region. The results from the different forecasting methods and techniques are being presented and conclusions are drawn on the reliability of the achieved forecasts.

Keywords: SPA and Wellness Tourism; Exponential Forecasting; Economic Cycles; SouthWest Bulgaria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Z32 Z33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cieo.pt/journal/J_2_2017/article3.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:jspord:0933

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being is currently edited by Patrícia Pinto

More articles in Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being from Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve University of Algarve, Faculty of Economics, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal, Coordinator of the Centre: Prof. Patrícia Pinto, E-mail: pvalle@ualg.pt. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Silvia Fernandes ().