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Estimated the Index of Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Using Parametric Method: The Case of OPEC

Esmaiel Abounoori () and Hasan Lajevardi ()
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Esmaiel Abounoori: Professor of Economics, Semnan University
Hasan Lajevardi: Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Semnan University

Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2016, vol. 3, issue 3, 25-44

Abstract: The aims of this study is to estimate the resilience and economic vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability is a structural features that increase the weaknesses of a system during adverse shocks. Economic resilience is defined as the ability of economic policy of a country to withstand in the face of shocks and recover from the effects of them. Also this paper economic resilience and vulnerability index for OPEC member countries for the period of 1995 to 2013 is estimated. Using the method of multiple causes, multiple indicators (MIMIC) and using the method of maximum likelihood, resiliency and vulnerability index was estimated. After estimating the number of models, among them top models according to compatibility with the theoretical foundations and the significance test by fitting indicators were selected coefficients. The results show that Iraq, Angola, Libya and Nigeria have high vulnerability and the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia affected are low. Iran's Net Index rating resiliency and among the 12 OPEC members is equal to 6.

Keywords: Economic resiliency; Economic vulnerability; Structural equation; Multiple-Indicators Multiple-Causes (MIMIC). (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 O13 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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