Modeling Factors Influencing Inflation Rate in Iran's Economy Using Firefly and Cuckoo Algorithm
Hossein Akbari Fard (),
Amin Ghasemi Nejad () and
Maryam Rezaee Jafari ()
Additional contact information
Hossein Akbari Fard: Assistant Professor of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University
Amin Ghasemi Nejad: M.A. in Economics, Shahid Bahonar University
Maryam Rezaee Jafari: M.A. in Economics, Shahid Bahonar University
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2017, vol. 4, issue 3, 143-168
Inflation, as one of the economic phenomena, causes many negative social and cultural consequences such as poverty, disproportionate distribution of income and the spread of financial distress, which in turn imposes significant costs on the economy. For this reason, price stability is considered as the main goal of economic planning and policy in all countries. Therefore, it is important to study and predict this macroeconomic variable. In this regard, various predictive models have been developed in competition with each other. One of these methods is evolutionary algorithms, which is a new method for modeling and predicting various phenomena. In the present study, using the Firefly and Cuckoo algorithm, and employing variables that affect inflation, including liquidity, exchange rate, real interest rate, expected inflation and industrial output during the period of 1975-2015, we attempt to model inflation linearly and non-linearly. The results show that the nonlinear model is more suitable for inflation modeling, and the Firefly algorithm is better than Cuckoo algorithm. According to the precision of the non-linear model developed by Firefly algorithm, it can be used to forecast inflation in the future.
Keywords: Modeling; Inflation rate; Firefly algorithm; Cuckoo algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C54 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6741_45de67d94d73869a2410ce31fd0bb5cc.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:qjatoe:0085
Access Statistics for this article
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics is currently edited by Sakineh Sojoodi
More articles in Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics from Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sakineh Sojoodi ().