Estimation of Underground Economy in Iran's Provinces and Effective Factors

Reza Karbor (), Zahra Karimi Takanlou () and Parviz Rostamzadeh ()
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Reza Karbor: Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, University of Tabriz
Zahra Karimi Takanlou: Associate Professor of Economics, University of Tabriz
Parviz Rostamzadeh: Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Shiraz

Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2019, vol. 6, issue 2, 161-198

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of Iran's oil revenues on macroeconomic variables in the form of DSGE model during the period of 1995-2015 in the context of open economy based on the real business cycle pattern, in line with the conditions of the Iranian economy including households, enterprises, government and The monetary authority is the oil sector with an emphasis on the National Development Fund. The results of simulation of the model variables indicate that, due to the positive impetus of oil revenues, production, consumption, investment, government spending under both scenarios increases, but the increase in the direct tax distribution scenario is higher than the base scenario. Also, the greater the share of government-owned oil revenues (50 and 75 percent) in households from the current budget, the increase will also be higher in the resources of the National Development Fund. Consequently, the contribution of the Facility to the Private Sector (F) increases. According to the modeling of this study, the increased private sector investment (����) also increases, as a result of non-oil production in the country. Therefore, based on the results obtained, the direct tax-deductible distribution policy is recommended as a supplement to the National Development Fund

Keywords: Underground Economy; Tax burden; Money demand model; Panel Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E26 E41 O17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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