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Economic Prospect in MENA Countries until 2105: The Application of RICE Model

Marzieh Haghshenas (), Rozita Moayedfar (), Shekoofeh Farahmand () and Alimorad Sharifi ()
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Marzieh Haghshenas: Ph.D. Student, Econoimc Department, University of Isfahan
Rozita Moayedfar: Assistant Professor, Econoimc Department, University of Isfahan
Shekoofeh Farahmand: Assosiate Professor, Econoimc Department, University of Isfahan
Alimorad Sharifi: Assosiate Professor, Econoimc Department, University of Isfahan

Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2022, vol. 8, issue 4, 35-76

Abstract: Today, global warming is one of the most important human concerns in the fields of economy, energy and environment. The most important element in global warming is the burning fossil fuels that release the greenhouse gases including CO2. The researches by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that global warming will rise more than 2 degrees centigrade by the end of the century with respect to the pre-industrial era, if no effort is made to reduce CO2 emissions. Since the MENA region is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world due to climate change, so the main purpose of this study is to assess the effects of climate change on the economic variables in MENA region until 2105. For this purpose RICE model is used which is based on the computational general equilibrium model. The results indicate that the global average temperature will rise to 4.49 degrees centigrade until 2105 year in comparison to the pre-industrial era, if no policy is implemented to prevent rising temperatures. The trend of regional GDP and consumption are similar and will increasingly move. In the long-run, the capital accumulation will increase in the upper-middle income, the lower-middle income and the high income countries, respectively; while employment will increase in the lower-middle income, the upper-middle income and the high income countries, respectively. Environmental damage is the most in the high income countries in comparison to the other groups in MENA region

Keywords: Climate change; integrated regional model of climate and economy; global warming; regional GDP (RGDP); MENA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 Q43 Q51 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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