The Dynamic Effects of Demographic and Economic Variables on the Welfare Level of Iranian Households in the Horizon of 1420

Masoud Pilehvar Torghebeh () and Zarir Negintaji ()
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Masoud Pilehvar Torghebeh: M.A. in Economics, Shahid Beheshti University
Zarir Negintaji: Assistant professor of economics, Shahid Beheshti University

Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2024, vol. 11, issue 1, 241-278

Abstract: Considering the situation of the age pyramid of Iran's population and the decreasing situation of the labor force, it is very important to examine the economic situation of the country and the income situation of households along with the endogenous analysis of the demographic structure of the population. In this research, in order to investigate the state of welfare of Iranian households and analyze the cost of their incomes, a dynamic system model of the economic and demographic conditions of the country was designed and compiled, and with the help of it, the state of household income and government aid, and on the other hand, household expenses and the balance between the two The sector has been simulated in two scenarios of zero and 5% economic growth using Ithink software for the years 1395-1420. According to the simulated results of the household income in terms of the government's social assistance, in the period under review and for both scenarios, the household income does not cover the expenses, which means that an Iranian household in the coming years, whatever it earns under the title of income He will spend what he does on current expenses and will not get extra welfare. Of course, the results show that with the realization of the minimum economic growth of 5.9% in the period under review, the average growth of incomes will be higher than the expenses, and as a result, the level of household welfare during all the years of simulation will be higher than the current level.

Keywords: Demographic Variables; Economic Variables; Household Welfare; System Dynamics Method; Household Expenses and Income (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 I31 J17 P36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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