Estimation of housing price bubble in Iran and selected countries (Spatial panel approach)

Mohammadreza Monjazeb (monjazeb@khu.ac.ir), Mohsen Ebrahimi (ebrahimi@khu.ac.ir) and Leila Irvani (leilait2021@gmail.com)
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Mohammadreza Monjazeb: Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Public Affairs, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
Mohsen Ebrahimi: Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Public Affairs, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
Leila Irvani: Master of Economic Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2024, vol. 11, issue 3, 109-134

Abstract: Housing price fluctuations in Iran during the last two decades have been one of the main challenges of the housing market. In one period, there has been a significant increase in housing prices, and in another period, housing prices have been reduced or very stable. Fluctuations have caused many changes in the housing sector and in the entire economy. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the shocks affecting the Iranian housing market and compare the amount of the existing bubble compared to the global housing bubble. In this research, an attempt has been made to calculate the real housing price bubble. For this purpose, real housing price index variables, inflation rate, real GDP per capita, unemployment rate, population and real exchange rate have been used. The studied period is annually from 2005-2022 and the sections include 42 selected countries. The data analysis method is spatial panel and Stata, Eviuse and Geoda software were used. The research results confirm the existence of a housing price bubble in Iran and 12 other countries. The amount of housing bubble in Iran is reported to be lower than other bubble countries

Keywords: real housing price bubble; inflation rate; unemployment rate; real exchange rate; spatial panel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 D51 E24 E31 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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