Graphing and Measuring COVID-19’s First Wave Impact on the Bolivian Economy: Facing the Unknown

Gover Barja Daza

Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, 2021, issue 36, 7-42

Abstract: The Bolivian monthly index of economic activity along with ARMA models are used in an attempt to graph and measure the impact of COVID-19’s pandemic on the Bolivian economy. The accumulated difference between the observed and counterfactual values, show an overall 12.6% loss of economic activity in the 10 months from February to November 2020 of the first COVID-19 wave, with a tilted W-shape short-run recovery just before the beginning of the second wave in December 2020. Breakdown into the twelve Bolivian economic sectors show wide heterogeneity in depth of impact and speeds of recovery during the same period.

Keywords: COVID-19; Interrupted time series analysis; ARMA-GARCH models; Bolivia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 E37 O54 Y10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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