El tipo de cambio real, el ingreso nacional y el ingreso foráneo en la determinación de la balanza comercial en Bolivia: 1992-2011

Plinio Hernández Barriga (), Alexander Rivero Ticona and Isidro Frias
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Plinio Hernández Barriga: Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, UMSNH.
Alexander Rivero Ticona: Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, UMSNH.

Revista Nicolaita de Estudios Económicos, 2012, vol. VII, issue 2, 27-46

Abstract: The objective of this research is to examine the effect of real exchange rate, national income and foreign income on Bolivia’s trade balance, during the period 1992-2011. To that aim, a cointegration and an error correction model were developed, applying the Johansen methodology, including and excluding natural gas exports. Results suggest that real exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in the long run, validating the Marshall-Lerner condition, whereas, in the short run, exchange rate was not significant, not showing evidence for the J curve. National and foreign income had a negative and positive effect, respectively, on Bolivia’s trade balance. Nevertheless, given the obtained income elasticity differences, a balance of payments restricted economic growth is observable.

Keywords: Bolivia; trade balance; Marshall-Lerner; restricted economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E10 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:rnicee:0070

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