State priorities for the development of the export sector of the Russian Far East economy: assessing the prospects for regional dynamics

Anna V. Belousova ()
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Anna V. Belousova: Economic Research Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences

Economic Consultant, 2019, vol. 28, issue 4, 45-51

Abstract: The development of the economy of the Russian Far East is declared as a national priority in the 21st century. The President and the Government of the Russian Federation set the task of ensuring accelerated and sustainable regional growth. At the same time, the necessary conditions of the growthare associated with structural changes in the export sector of the Russian Far Eastern economy. An increase in the share of manufacturing industries and, as a consequence, an increase in the share of non-primary exports are expected. In this regard, the task of assessing the effects generated by export activities for the economic dynamics of the Far Eastern macroregion is particular scientific interest. To solve the corresponding problem, econometric modeling methods were used in the work. Based on the panel data structure, systems of nonlinear recursive equations were constructed that linked the cost indicators of product export, the volume of its regional production, the ratio of the dollar exchange rate and purchasing power parity; GRP and export products. The possibilities of scenario forecasting on the basis of the proposed designs were determined by differentiating data on export deliveries in accordance with the degree of processing of the products of the latter. The results of the quantitative analysis confirmed and made it possible to obtain a numerical expression of the superiority of the economic effects generated by non-oil exports compared with the sale of resources.

Keywords: export sector; economic growth; econometric modeling; recursive system of equations; panel data; region; the Russian Far East (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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