ARDL MODELING OF TUNISIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH

Imtinen Ben Saied
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Imtinen Ben Saied: University of Tunis Elmanar, Faculty of Economics and Management of Tunis elmanar, Tunisia.

UTMS Journal of Economics, 2026, vol. 17, issue 1, 18-31

Abstract: Investment is an essential tool for generating an increase in productivity and an increase in the stock of capital. Indeed, given its positive short-term and long-term effects (Bouchoucha et al (2019) in several sectors, investment is one of the most important drivers of growth. On the other hand, high investment is a good sign for economic growth. This could be explained mainly by the rate of profit derived more from public investment (Paloma et al 2004). Investment can play an important role in the attractiveness of certain developing countries, especially by in relation to its foreign component. The case arises in Tunisia, which has always been concerned about these foreign direct investments (FDI) which are supposed to strengthen its exports, boost job creation, generate technology transfers and embellish the contribution of the economic development, especially industrial development. The objective of this article focuses on evaluating the impact of investment on Tunisia's economic growth between the years 1972-2021. We applied the test of stationarity and cointegration of the different variables in order to estimate the model Autoregressive Scaled Lag (ARDL). Estimation results show that investment has a negative effect on economic growth in the short term. However, these estimates suggest a positive longterm effect.

Keywords: Economic Growth; FDI; Tunisia; ARDL model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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