Project Independence Report: An Appraisal of Energy Needs up to 1985
Bell Journal of Economics, 1975, vol. 6, issue 2, 517-551
The key question which the Federal Energy Administration's Project Independence Report attempts to answer is the level of U.S. oil imports under different world oil prices. The three essential components of the model which produces the forecasts -- oil and natural gas supply, energy demand, and the integrating model -- are discussed and their potential biases identified. The paper concludes that national gas supply is likely to be higher than the model forecasts, while serious faults exist in the demand model which finds natural gas and oil products to be complements. In a deregulated BTU equilibrium, these biases lead to a more pessimistic forecast of U.S. imports by 1985 than may actually occur.
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