An Evaluation of Two Alternative Supply Models of Natural Gas

John A. Neri

Bell Journal of Economics, 1977, vol. 8, issue 1, 289-302

Abstract: Two natural gas models currently used to forecast the response of exploration and production to wellhead price deregulation are examined. These models are based on the same theoretical exploration and discovery process, but differ in the estimation of this process. One model is purely econometric while the other combines econometric and engineering elements. Each model has been simulated over the historical period 1965-1972 and the forecast period 1975-1980. While the historical simulations are quite similar, the forecasts are not. Reasons for the forecast differences are given.

Date: 1977
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