Oil Supply Forecasting: A Disaggregated Process Approach

Paul L. Eckbo, Henry D. Jacoby and James Smith

Bell Journal of Economics, 1978, vol. 9, issue 1, 218-235

Abstract: Work is under way on a forecasting method that incorporates explicit representations of the steps in the oil supply process: exploration, reservoir development, and production. The discovery history of a region and other geological data are inputs to a statistical analysis of the exploratory process. The resulting estimate of the size distribution of new reservoirs is combined with an evaluation of reservoir economies -- taking account of engineering cost, oil price, and taxes. The model produces a forecast of additions to the productive reserve base and oil supply. Progress to date is demonstrated in an application to the North Sea.

Date: 1978
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