Seasonality in Indian Commodities Market: Insights for modeling from preceding commodity cycle

Sharon K Jose and Girish G P

Bulletin of Applied Economics, 2021, vol. 8, issue 1, 167-173

Abstract: In this study we analyze seasonal behavior of Indian agriculture, energy and metal commodities through the ten years of preceding Super-cycle (2003-13) by considering monthly data for near month futures prices to remove basis variance. The thrust of the paper is to investigate seasonal behavior of selected commodities in India using monthly seasonal dummies. We found seasonal variation in four commodities namely gold, barley, guar and Jeera. In a declining interest-rate scenario and Post-Covid world, there is elevated likelihood that we are going to witness the next commodities super-cycle. It is imperative for hedge fund managers, global investors, commodities traders, high net-worth individuals, market participants and spread-traders to know what to expect based on the preceding super-cycle to strategize better and address seasonality.

Keywords: Commodity; Spot; Future; Hedging; Seasonality; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L61 L94 L95 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.riskmarket.co.uk/bae/journals-articles ... nload=attachment.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rmk:rmkbae:v:8:y:2021:i:1:p:167-173

Access Statistics for this article

Bulletin of Applied Economics is currently edited by Eleftherios Spyromitros

More articles in Bulletin of Applied Economics from Risk Market Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis ().