Dependence of Russian Inflation on the Dynamics of the World Food and Oil Prices

Maxim Petronevich and Nikolay Kondrashov
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Maxim Petronevich: National Research Institute Higher School of Economics

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2011, vol. 4, pages 128—147

Abstract: The article examines the impact of world prices for consumer price inflation in Russia in the context of some food items (wheat, bread, pasta, sunflower oil, milk, sugar, rice, poultry, pork, beef) and gasoline, which together account for 26% of consumer basket in order to calculate inflation in 2011. Results of the analysis suggest that the factor in world food prices is significant, but in most cases (for 8 out of 11 commodity groups) — the dominant, as it allows to explain more than 94% of the variance of domestic prices during the period from January 2005 to March 2011. The analysis confirms the hypothesis of an asymmetric nature of the following Russian prices for the world: with a decrease in external price reduction of domestic retail prices is extremely slow, and for some commodity groups does not occur at all.

Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:ecopol:1144

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