Agri-Food Countersanctions and the Welfare of the Russian Population

Контрсанкции на продовольственном рынке и благосостояние населения России

Skrypnik, Dmitry (Скрыпник, Дмитрий) (), Shakleina, Elena (Шаклеина, Елена) () and Zaytsev, Alexander (Зайцев, Александр) ()
Additional contact information
Skrypnik, Dmitry (Скрыпник, Дмитрий): National Research University Higher School of Economics
Shakleina, Elena (Шаклеина, Елена): Lomonosov Moscow State University
Zaytsev, Alexander (Зайцев, Александр): National Research University Higher School of Economics

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2024, vol. 19, 30-65

Abstract: The article examines the impact of countersanctions (the agri-food embargo) on the welfare of the Russian population. It employs a multi-stage econometric analysis which addresses the practical difficulties in making quantitative estimates of the effects of the countersanctions. The population was divided into three groups according to whether their welfare ranked high, medium, or low in the statistics from the twenty-third Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. Evaluation via a multiple-choice model for clustered data indicated how the probability of belonging to one of the three classes of welfare depended upon consumer spending for goods that are subject to countersanctions. The loss of purchasing power (change in real consumer spending) that the three population groups underwent as a result of the countersanctions was then calculated. In order to do this, estimates of elasticities in domestic production of basic foods were arrived at based on a structural demand supply system. How much the food embargo contributed to consumer price increases for individual food items in 2014 was also calculated. The conclusion was that the embargo resulted in incremental price increases from 1.5 to 22 percentage points for particular goods. The population’s loss of wealth was assessed by combining the estimates of decreasing purchasing power with the estimates from the multiple choice model. Russian countersanctions enlarged the group with low welfare by a relatively minor 1.52 percent or 2.223 million people. The wealth of the medium group decreased by 1.16 percent, while the corresponding decrease for the high wealth group was an insignificant 0.36 percent.

Keywords: multiple choice model; structural demand-supply system; import substitution; loss of purchasing power (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/ecopol/ec2402.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ec2402

DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2024-1-30-65

Access Statistics for this article

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy is currently edited by Sergey Drobyshevsky

More articles in Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RANEPA maintainer ().