7-32

Evsey Gurvich ()
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Evsey Gurvich: Economics Expert Group

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2013, 7—32

Abstract: The paper discusses the potential of a long-term development of the Russian economy. Failure of the main growth parameters for multiple scenarios highlighted the factors that determine the development of a particular scenario and provides qualitative estimate of the probability of their realization. It is concluded that the most probable scenario for the 2012-2030 years the average growth rate of Russian GDP will be around 3%, which is close to the OECD forecasts. Analysis of forecasts leads to the conclusion that in fact our country has entered a new, qualitatively different from the previous stage of development. It is characterized by multiple slowdown in the real value of per capita income and state revenue, the relative stabilization of Russia's position in the world economy. It has been argued that in such a situation, perhaps the most real and serious threat to the Russian economy in the coming years will make efforts to accelerate economic growth through palliative measures, while maintaining unchanged the remaining elements of the existing system.

Keywords: long-term forecast; scenarios of development; the quality of public institutions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1333

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