China: Economy in Transition

Китай: экономика переходного периода

Nosov, Vasilii (Носов, Василий) () and Tseplyaeva, Julia (Цепляева, Юлия) ()
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Nosov, Vasilii (Носов, Василий): Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia
Tseplyaeva, Julia (Цепляева, Юлия): Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2016, vol. 3, 46-55

Abstract: China’s economy is slowing. China’s growth in the past decade has been provided by cheap labor and the investment inflow, but the possibility of extensive growth has been exhausted. The transition to consumer demand-based model of growth is slow. China has significant resources to gain private consumption, however, the consumption can become a key driver of growth only in 2030. However, the accumulated imbalances pose significant risks for the stability of transition to the new growth model. High debt of the corporate sector, People’s Bank of China’s contradictory choice of monetary policy and the hidden political risks can lead to a serious economic slowdown.

Keywords: China; the extensive growth model; consumer demand; high debt of the corporate sector; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E52 E61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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