Global Low Carbon Trend of Development as a Driving Force for Paris Agreement Implementation

Глобальный низкоуглеродный тренд развития как движущая сила реализации Парижского соглашения

Kokorin, Alexey O. (Кокорин, Алексей) (akokorin@wwf.ru) and Vladimir Potashnikov (potashnikov.vu@gmail.com)
Additional contact information
Kokorin, Alexey O. (Кокорин, Алексей): World Wide Fund for Nature

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, 2018, vol. 3, 234-255

Abstract: The paper discusses the reasons for the stabilization of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. The decrease in emissions cannot be explained by economic reasons. Interannual temperature variations do not have a strong impact on the global dynamics of CO2, because energy consumption for air conditioning and heating in the world almost neutralize each other. Stabilizing emissions does not mean that they will go down — it is more likely that global emissions will be around the same level until 2030. Thus, the assessment of global dynamics according to the 3°C pathway (based on the country’s current national goals — INDC/NDC) remains valid. The active process of replacement of coal with gas, renewables and nuclear generation in China and the United States is the main reason of this stabilization. The decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions is already clearly demonstrated across the world, except some underdeveloped countries, despite the fact that a definite correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions is expected to be observed for a long time. Obviously, decoupling for developing countries is still far away. It is too early to judge the global dynamics of emissions after 2030, but with some confidence we can say that until 2030, international payments for emissions will most likely not be introduced. The situation will depend both on climate change risks and possible damage caused by the consequences of climate change for the largest countries, and on the economic parameters of the use of various energy sources.

Keywords: climate policy; UN Paris Agreement on Climate; greenhouse gas emissions; adaptation to climate change. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q47 Q54 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/ecopol/ep1829.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1829

Access Statistics for this article

Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy is currently edited by Vladimir Mau

More articles in Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RANEPA maintainer (repository@ranepa.ru).