DEMOGRAPHIC PARADOX AND ETHNOGENESIS OF L. GUMILEV: PROBLEMS OF POPULATION MANAGEMENT

ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ ПАРАДОКС И ЭТНОГЕНЕЗ Л. ГУМИЛЕВА: ПРОБЛЕМЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ НАРОДОНАСЕЛЕНИЕМ

Alexander V. Kokin (Кокин А.В.), Julia Yu. Sadovnikova (Садовникова Ю.Ю.) and lyudmila N. Timeichuk (Тимейчук Л.Н.)
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Alexander V. Kokin (Кокин А.В.): South-Russia Institute of Management – branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Julia Yu. Sadovnikova (Садовникова Ю.Ю.): South-Russia Institute of Management – branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
lyudmila N. Timeichuk (Тимейчук Л.Н.): South-Russia Institute of Management – branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

State and Municipal Management Scholar Notes, 2021, vol. 3, 74-81

Abstract: The possibility of applying the golden ratio to assessing the dynamics of the total fertility rate (TFR), the population in the world, Russia, and its regions is considered. The limiting value of the world TFR, population size and the reasons affecting these indicators are predicted. The paradox of the correspondence between the dynamics of the TFR and the passionarity of L. Gumilev at different stages of ethnogenesis is established, which gives grounds to link the passionarity with the bioenergetic potential of the ethnos. The limiting simple reproduction of the population of the world and regions is determined by the golden ratio of TFR at the level of the number Ф = 1.618 in the noosphere by the year 2100, upon reaching a high average life expectancy. The process of population management is reduced to the need to maintain TFR in the world and regions at a level close to the number Ф = 1.618, which determines the achievement of an unstable dynamic equilibrium of the population size in the noosphere.

Keywords: demography; total fertility rate; population size; passionarity; golden ratio; population management; noosphere (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:smmscn:s21311

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