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Il contenuto informativo dell’attività fieristica per l’analisi congiunturale

Emilio Colombo () and Luca Stanca ()

Rivista di Politica Economica, 2002, vol. 92, issue 5, 57-96

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical investigation of the informative content of indicators of trade exhibition activity for business cycle analysis. We analyse the comovements between alternative indicators of trade exhibition activity and reference variables at both aggregate and disaggregate level. The results indicate a systematic pattern in the co-movements between many of the indicators examined and the reference variables. Both correlation and turning point analyses show a leading behaviour for some indicators. The forecasting analysis suggests, for some of the series considered, a significant predictive content. Overall, the results suggest that appropriate indicators of trade exhibition activity could potentially represent useful instruments for business cycle analysis.

JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:92:y:2002:i:5:p:57-96