The Business Cycle and its International Transmission: Recent Changes for the Italian Economy

Marco Cacciotti (), Benedetta Cerciello (), Giuseppe De Arcangelis and Giorgia Giovannetti ()
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Marco Cacciotti: Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze, Roma
Benedetta Cerciello: Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze, Roma

Rivista di Politica Economica, 2005, vol. 95, issue 4, 87-128

Abstract: This paper presents some "statistical facts" about the Italian business cycle. Our results suggest that in the last decade the Italian economy has been increasingly synchronizing with the Euro Area and still lags behind the US cycle. In line with other industrial countries, the Italian cycle has dampened in the 90s. Especially, the average duration and magnitude of contractions have significantly lowered. Furthermore, a state-dependent structural VAR analysis shows that (unexpected) changes in the US output gap are transmitted to the Italian economy more significantly and more strongly when the US economy is booming rather than contracting.

JEL-codes: E32 F41 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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