Previsioni delle spese del bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria

Giuseppe Bianchi (), Tatiana Cesaroni and Ottavio Ricchi ()
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Giuseppe Bianchi: Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato, Roma
Ottavio Ricchi: Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato - Servizio Studi Dipartimentale

Rivista di Politica Economica, 2013, issue 1, 271-326

Abstract: In this paper, we model and forecast monthly budget balance expenditures. The annual dimension of budget figures is integrated with an approach based on higher frequency data. To this end we develop an econometric model (disaggregated at expenditures category level) based on behavioral equations and budget balances identities linking data at different frequencies. The aggregate expenditure forecasts are obtained as a linear combination of the macroaggregates forecasts. This approach determines an improvement of forecast performance with respect to pure benchmark autoregressive models. The econometric model also represents a useful instrument to support the government forecasts based on more traditional tools.

Keywords: state budget expenditures; infra annual financial indicators; econometric models; forecast performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C50 H50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Previsioni delle Spese del Bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria (2010)
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