Forecasting Accuracy and Structural Stability of the Economic Base Model

Paul E. Polzin, Kent Connaughton, Con H. Schallau and James T. Sylvester
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Paul E. Polzin: University of Montana
Kent Connaughton: USDA Forest Service
Con H. Schallau: USDA Forest Service
James T. Sylvester: University of Montana

The Review of Regional Studies, 1988, vol. 18, issue 2, 23-36

Abstract: Despite the forecasting and impact analysis emphasis, there have been no attempts to evaluate the economic base model on the basis of its predictions. Simply comparing the projections reported in impact studies with actual data may provide unreliable tests because the specified project may be only one of many sources of local area change. This paper examines the performance of the economic base model for four timber-dependent communities in the Pacific Northwest, using the accuracy of ex post forecasts and other statistical measures.

Date: 1988
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