Improving the accuracy of consensus forecasts for the EURO area

Mihaela Simionescu

Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, 2012, vol. 4, issue 2, 11-15

Abstract: Starting from the predictions made by the Consensus Economics for the average percentage change in the previous year of the imports and exports of Euro Area for 2010 and 2011, some strategies to improve the forecasts accuracy were tested. The most accurate forecasts for 2010 were those based on ARIMA models for the mentioned indicators. An improvement of the forecasts accuracy for the average percentage of change in imports was registered for 2011 by combining the lowest and the highest predicted values of the experts using equally weighted (EW) scheme. Knowing the historical accuracy of Consensus forecasts and the best strategies to improve it, a better orientation could be done in the future decision-making of economic agents, especially central banks.

Keywords: forecasts; accuracy; combined forecasts; Consensus forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 E21 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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