Measuring expected shortfall under semi-parametric expected shortfall approaches: a case study of selected Southern European/Mediterranean countries

Nikola Radivojević, Borislav Bojić and Marija Lakićević

Journal of Operational Risk

Abstract: We investigate the applicability of semi-parametric approaches for estimating expected shortfall. More precisely, we examine the applicability of several models based on the historical simulation (HS) approach: one based on untransformed historical data, and others based on transformed historical data. Our research shows that the HS models based on certain transformed historical data can reliably be used for the estimation of market risk in terms of the Basel III standards. This investigation was conducted on the capital markets of selected Southern European/Mediterranean countries and those of Serbia and Ireland. Our backtesting results were verified using Monte Carlo testing and the bootstrap method.

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