The future of risk and insurability in the era of systemic disruption, unpredictability and artificial intelligence

Roger Spitz and Olivier Desbiey

Journal of Operational Risk

Abstract: In an era defined by systemic disruption, radical unpredictability and the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence, the classical distinction between risk and uncertainty, first articulated by Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes, demands urgent reexamination. While traditional risk is measurable through probabilistic models, deep uncertainty involves unknowable probabilities and indeterminate outcomes that increasingly defy legacy risk frameworks. This paper explores how the rising frequency of high-impact shocks – technological, geopolitical, financial and epidemiological – exposes the fragility of conventional risk management approaches. It argues for a paradigm shift, from viewing disruption as episodic to understanding it as systemic, whereby interdependent stressors interact to produce cascading, nonlinear impacts. To address this complexity, we propose the antifragile, anticipatory and agility (AAA) framework as a novel approach for uncertainty management. Drawing on insights from complexity science, strategic foresight and adaptive resilience, the framework emphasizes imagination over prediction and prioritizes managing outcome amplitude over probability. By cultivating organizational shock absorbers and dynamic responsiveness, the AAA framework enables stakeholders to navigate open-ended volatility, build adaptive capability for decision-making under deep uncertainty and seize emergent opportunities across multiple plausible futures. This has critical implications for risk intelligence, insurability and policy design in increasingly volatile and complex environments.

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