Likelihood Estimation of the Systemic Poison-Induced Morbidity in an Adult North Eastern Romanian Population

Catalina Lionte, Victorita Sorodoc, Cristina Tuchilus and Elisabeta Jaba
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Catalina Lionte: Gr. T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy
Victorita Sorodoc: Gr. T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy
Cristina Tuchilus: Gr. T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy
Elisabeta Jaba: Al. I. Cuza University of Iasi

Romanian Statistical Review, 2016, vol. 64, issue 4, 87-99

Abstract: Purpose - Acute exposure to a systemic poison represents an important segment of medical emergencies. We aimed to estimate the likelihood of systemic poison-induced morbidity in a population admitted in a tertiary referral center from North East Romania, based on the determinant factors. Methodology - This was a prospective observational cohort study on adult poisoned patients. Demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics were recorded in all patients. We analyzed three groups of patients, based on the associated morbidity during hospitalization. We identified significant differences between groups and predictors with significant effects on morbidity using multiple multinomial logistic regressions. ROC analysis proved that a combination of tests could improve diagnostic accuracy of poison-related morbidity. Main findings - Of the 180 patients included, aged 44.7 ± 17.2 years, 51.1% males, 49.4% had no poison-related morbidity, 28.9% developed a mild morbidity, and 21.7% had a severe morbidity, followed by death in 16 patients (8.9%). Multiple complications and deaths were recorded in patients aged 53.4 ± 17.6 years (p .001), with a lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score upon admission and a significantly higher heart rate (101 ± 32 beats/min, p .011). Routine laboratory tests were significantly higher in patients with a recorded morbidity. Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a GCS

Keywords: systemic poison; likelihood; morbidity; logistic regression; ROC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C29 C39 C88 I19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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