Impact Of Pak-India Relationship On Rice Trade On Economy Of Pakistan By Using Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)

Faiz Muhammad Shaikh, Mushtaque Ali Jariko, Muhammad Saleh Memon and Abdul Sattar Shah
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Faiz Muhammad Shaikh: SZABAC-Dokri-Larkana-Sindh Pakistan
Mushtaque Ali Jariko: Aalborg University Copenhagen
Muhammad Saleh Memon: University of Sindh-Jamshoro
Abdul Sattar Shah: University of Sindh-Jamshoro

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2015, vol. 63, issue 7, 55-74

Abstract: This research investigates the Impact of PAK-INDIA Rice trade on Economy of Pakistan. Data were collected from GTAP-7 database. Data were collected from 60 rice exporters by using simple random technique and data were analyzed by using GEM-software. Different simulation run on GTAP-7 database and various tariff rates applied. It was revealed that if India were removing the sensitive list item, in this scenario both countries would have positive impact on GDP, Export, Import. The results indicates that there is positive impact of Rice export to India. It was further revealed that if Pakistan is given MFN status to India, Pakistan’s import decreased and Export increased and overall positive impact on Economy. The first scenario is when normal trading relation with India will be restored; it means that both countries will give the MFN (Most Favored Nations) status to each other. In the second scenario, the SAFTA will be operative and there will be free trade between India and Pakistan and both countries will remove all tariffs and custom duties from each others’ imports. The Global trade analysis GTAP model is used to analyze the possible impact of SAFTA on Pakistan in a multi country, multi sector applied General equilibrium frame work. Results based on this research reveal that on SAFTA, grounds, here will be net export benefits in Pakistan’s economy.

Keywords: PAK-INDIA; TRADE; CGE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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