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Using the Dynamic Model ARMA to Forecast the Macroeconomic Evolution

Constantin Anghelache, Janusz Grabara and Alexandru Manole
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Constantin Anghelache: Bucharest University of Economic Studies, “Artifex” University of Bucharest
Janusz Grabara: Czestochowa University of Technology
Alexandru Manole: “Artifex” University of Bucharest

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2016, vol. 64, issue 1, 3-13

Abstract: The ARMA models, provide in the statistical analysis of time series, a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the auto-regression and the second for the moving average. We want to estimate, by using the informatics soft Eviews, the future evolutions of the gross domestic product in Romania, for the period 2009 -2013, obtaining thus, on the ground of the official evolutions during the period 1991 – 2008, a model AR meant to grasp ex post the evolution of the economic growth from our country, for the period 2009 -2013. To achieve ex post the forecast for the evolution of the GDP, during the period 2009 -2013, we will use as “sample” the data published in the interval 1991 -2008.

Keywords: dynamic; model ARMA; validity; prediction; autoregressive model; correlation; macroeconomic evolution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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