STRUCTURAL METHODS USED IN FORECASTING STUDIES

Florin Paul Costel Lilea (), Aurelian Diaconu, Radu Titus Marinescu and Gyorgy Bodo
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Aurelian Diaconu: „Artifex” University of Bucharest
Radu Titus Marinescu: „Artifex” University of Bucharest
Gyorgy Bodo: Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2017, vol. 65, issue 4, 66-74

Abstract: In this article, the authors have proposed to analyze some structural prediction methods that can be used in macroeconomic studies. In this sense, the authors focused particularly on analysis of how, economic and mathematical model can be used in the economic forecast. I started with the general model of the Cobb-Douglas, which is a function of the production factors is based on the consideration included in the mathematical model, thus identifying the influence that each of those factors. The Cobb-Douglas model is a synthesis of the forecast, the forecast model is easily associated with the way of simulation or analysis to consider the possibility on the basis of factors identified in the preliminary study. The paper provides a number of elements which can be reached from a study of prognosis, to carry out its functions for the purposes of ensuring an optimal forecasting and projecting levels and indicators that can straighten out economic trends into the future. The system of economic indicators, is considered to be comprehensive, can provide both a clear vision and identification is possible for future work. In this article, the authors refer to the method successive approximations method tree of possibilities, the scenario method or the method of international comparisons. These and production functions enable analysis based on structural models to ensure finally a certain element on the future evolution of the economy.

Keywords: prediction; tree method; economic-mathematical model; production function; economic scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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