ANALYSIS OF THE NATURAL MOVEMENT AND POPULATION STRUCTURE IN ROMANIA

Constantin Anghelache, Alexandru Manole, Madalina-Gabriela Anghel and Aurelian Diaconu
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Constantin Anghelache: Bucharest University of Economic Studies/„Artifex" University of Bucharest
Alexandru Manole: „Artifex” University of Bucharest
Madalina-Gabriela Anghel: „Artifex" University of Bucharest
Aurelian Diaconu: „Artifex”University of Bucharest

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2017, vol. 65, issue 7, 151-160

Abstract: Analysis of the natural movement of the population has an important role in assessing the labor resources of a country. Natality, as a demographic phenomenon, is influenced by social and economic conditions, by national culture and tradition, as well as by the general domestic and international situation. In the appreciation of birth rates, it is necessary to study a series of statistical-demographic indicators, among which we mention: birth rate, natural growth, mortality, marriages and divorce, population migration, etc. In this article, the authors proposed to carry out a concrete analysis of the demographic phenomenon in Romania, to compute a series of reference indicators and, based on them, to forecast the evolution of the population. Also, starting from the birth rate trend, an econometric model will be presented to establish correlations and interdependencies between birth, active population, occupied population, number of employees, on the one hand, and results indicator, Gross Domestic Product, on the other hand. In this respect, simple and multiple regression models are used, as well as index and chronological methods.

Keywords: birth rate; natural growth; active population; discouraged population; trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J12 R22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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