CORRECTION OF EQUILIBRUM AND AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS USED IN THE MACROECONOMIC FORECAST

Constantin Anghelache, Madalina-Gabriela Anghel, Zoica Nicola and Radu Stoica
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Constantin Anghelache: Bucharest University of Economic Studies/„Artifex" University of Bucharest
Madalina-Gabriela Anghel: „Artifex" University of Bucharest
Zoica Nicola: „Artifex” University of Bucharest
Radu Stoica: Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 2017, vol. 65, issue 7, 92-104

Abstract: Macroeconomic forecasting is an essential element in planning and considering evolutionary elements over a period of time. The macroeconomic forecast has developed and, over the last period of time, the use of macroeconomic forecasting or, in other words, the use of econometric models in the macroeconomic forecast has become increasingly useful. A series of dVAR and EqCM models have been developed that are often used in macroeconomic forecasts. These models are typically used to bring some corrections to the balance that must characterize macroeconomic developments, but also self-regression, which is an essential element in macroeconomic analyzes. Due to these developments, makers of macroeconomic models and forecasting specialists may have justification when considering modern EqCM models would achieve a better prognosis than when using models using differential data such as the dVAR model. From the mathematical study it can be appreciated that the dVAR model can be considered a particular case of the EqCM model because it requires some additional unit root system restrictions. In this article, the authors emphasized the mathematical and econometric analysis of the two EqCM and dVAR models that are used in macroeconomic forecasting from the macroeconomic chronological series, considered to be integrated in the first order, considering that they often include deterministic terms that allow a Linear evolutionary trend. Mathematical computations are presented, concluding that both forecasting models EqCM and dVAR use the estimated parameters. We can not ignore some uncertainties of these parameters and therefore we have analyzed the probability limits of the parameter estimates to highlight that the results of the prognosis by using these two models yield results and become consistent in the context of the equilibrium correction and also the self-regression.

Keywords: model; prognosis; macroeconomic balance; self-regression; econometric model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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