Estimating National Power and Intentions

Charlotte and George Dyer
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Charlotte and George Dyer: University of Pennsylvania. Graduates

The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1960, vol. 330, issue 1, 145-155

Abstract: The rational formulation of American foreign policy is rendered extremely difficult by the great number of factors which must be taken into account by the decision- makers. These are beyond the capacity of any human brain, or even team of brains, to assimilate, evaluate, and reduce to forms upon which sound policy can be based. A weighted framework or model is needed, and some mechanical support for human thinking which would rationalize initial foreign policy estimation electrically. Such a device will also permit gaming. As a preliminary blueprint for this proposed device, The World Analyst classification system is used to divide na tional power into ten "factors": geographic, demographic, po litical, foreign affairs, economic, industry, transportation and communication, scientific, armed forces and biographic. To evaluate individual elements of national strength and weak ness, these are cross-categorized on game boards in five panels: immediate national power, potentials for national power, de struction of such elements, aggressions between nations other than the United States, and acts of aggression towards the United States. Using a model of this sort a trial balance can be obtained between nations, and policy can be tested in advance.

Date: 1960
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:anname:v:330:y:1960:i:1:p:145-155

DOI: 10.1177/000271626033000131

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