Issues of Thermonuclear War Termination

Herman Kahn

The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1970, vol. 392, issue 1, 133-172

Abstract: The possibility of thermonuclear war is here faced and its termination probed, in view of the fact that the missiles for such a war are already in existence and its actuality is therefore not truly "unthinkable." The premise is advanced that the '70's are perhaps the last decade of safety from such a war. Features of a modal model are explored, and six basic and omnipresent threats are discussed. The concept of a war of reciprocal reprisals is presented, as are the cases of ad hoc cease-fire, conditional cease-fire, and the continuation of war with both "rational" and "irrational" outcomes. Ways to hypothecate force in a stable balance-of-terror environment are then examined, and eleven types of war outcome analyzed. The various situations enhancing acceptability of at least an ad hoc cease-fire are listed, and the possible results of taking the recommended design cases seriously are emphasized. A sample mobilization scenario is given in the concluding re marks of warning.

Date: 1970
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:anname:v:392:y:1970:i:1:p:133-172

DOI: 10.1177/000271627039200113

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