Oil Price Forecasting in the 1980s: What Went Wrong?*

Hillard Huntington

The Energy Journal, 1994, vol. 15, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: This paper reviews forecasts of oil prices over the 1980s that were made in 1980. It identifies the sources of errors due to such factors as exogenous GNP assumptions, resource supply conditions outside the cartel, and demand adjustments to price changes. Through 1986, the first two factors account for most of the difference between projected and actual prices. After 1986, misspecification of the demand adjustments becomes a particularly troublesome problem.

Keywords: Oil prices; Forecasting; EMF World oil model; OPEC; Non-OPEC supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1994
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-1 (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: Oil Price Forecasting in the 1980s: What Went Wrong? (1994)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:15:y:1994:i:2:p:1-22

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-1

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Energy Journal
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().