The Economics of Energy Market Transformation Programs

Richard Duke and Daniel M. Kammen

The Energy Journal, 1999, vol. 20, issue 4, 15-64

Abstract: This paper evaluates three energy-sector market transformation programs: the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Green Lights program to promote on-grid efficient lighting; the World Bank Group's new Photovoltaic Market Transformation Initiative; and the federal grain ethanol subsidy. We develop a benefit-cost model that uses experience curves to estimate unit cost reductions as a function of cumulative production. Accounting for dynamic feedback between the demand response and price reductions from production experience raises the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of the first two programs substantially. The BCR of the ethanol program, however, is approximately zero, illustrating a technology for which subsidization was not justified. Our results support a broader role for market transformation programs to commercialize new environmentally attractive technologies, but the ethanol experience suggests moderately funding a broad portfolio composed of technologies that meet strict selection criteria.

Keywords: Market Transformation; learning and experiences curves; benefit-cost analysis; technology diffusion; Photovoltaics; Green Lights; ethanol (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:20:y:1999:i:4:p:15-64

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No4-2

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