Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Electricity in New Zealand: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Koli Fatai, Les Oxley and Frank G. Scrimgeour

The Energy Journal, 2003, vol. 24, issue 1, 75-102

Abstract: Models of energy demand in New Zealand have typically been based upon either a partial general equilibrium approach or constructed from spreadsheet models. The results created by such methods predict that electricity is forecast to be the fastest growing energy demanded by households and the industrial sectorfor the next two decades. Furthermore, aggregate electricity demand is forecast to grow at a constant rate for the next two decades. In this paper we attempt to model and forecast electricity demand using a number of recent econometn'c approaches including Engle-Granger’s Error Correction Model, Phillip and Hansen’s (1990) Fully Modified Least Squares, and the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach of Pesaran et al. (1996, 1998). We identify the model with the smallest forecasting error using a series offorecasting measures and conclude that the new ARDL approach of Pesaran et al, has better forecasting performance than the other approaches considered.

Keywords: Electricity demand; cointegration; error correction model; forecasting; New Zealand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No1-4 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:24:y:2003:i:1:p:75-102

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No1-4

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Energy Journal
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().